On the back burner

With the General Election well and truly over, this blog has been put on the back burner for now. I might add some updates on how the Donegal candidates in the Senate elections get on and perhaps, if time permits will commence updates on local political issues.

In the meantime thanks to all who visited. You can keep tabs on me through my other blog - www.adropofporter.blogspot.com

Or you can follow me on Twitter       @LiamPort

Cheers

- Liam

New look for Donegal County Council

Donegal County Council meets today in Lifford but there will be three notable absentees following the election to the Dáil at the weekend of councillors Thomas Pringle, Padraig MacLochlainn and Charlie McConalogue.

As the county’s three new TDs prepare to take their seats in the 31^st Dáil, speculation will now turn to who their replacements will be in the council chamber in Lifford – and there’s might not be the only seats to fill.

There were some suggestions at Saturday’s count that Labour’s Jimmy Harte will be encouraged to seek a Senate seat following his strong showing in Donegal North East, with some speculation that Labour could seek some of the Taoiseach’s Senate nominations as part of any coalition deal.

Whether Enda Kenny would like to grant a nominated seat to a candidate who left Fine Gael in a high-profile split though remains to be seen and it is more likely that he would reward long-serving councillor Bernard McGuinness if a Senate nomination were to come to Donegal.

Of course it remains a possibility that councillor Harte could seek election to the Senate and councillor McGuinness could still receive a nominated post – leaving two more seats to fill on the council.

It will be interesting as well to see who the parties choose to fill the vacant seats. Fianna Fáil’s Paul Canning was pipped at the end in the last local elections in Inishowen when Labour’s Martin Farren – but he is based in Newtowncunningham in South Inishowen and Charlie McConalogue is based in the north of the peninsula.

Sinn Féin could also choose to nominate Padraig MacLochlainn’s running-mate from the last election – Sean Ruddy – but may also look to former Buncrana Town councillor Daren Lalor or former Buncrana candidate Ciaran McGuinness. And of course they could bring two new faces to politics in Donegal by choosing different people for MacLochlainn's seats on Donegal County Council and Buncrana Town Council.

Padraig MacLochlainn celebrating with supporters
 at the count in Letterkenny on Saturday.
Speculation will now turn to who gets his seats on
Donegal Town Council and Buncrana Town Council.

Independent Thomas Pringle has already nominated his director of elections, John Campbell to take his place on the council, but with the possibility of as many as five seats to fill, some attention will surely focus on whether seats of democratically elected candidates should be filled by co-option instead of election.

Meanwhile there is every possibility that there will be more Donegal candidates still in election races in the weeks ahead with Brian O’Domhnaill most likely to seek re-election to the Senate.

The question remains though if he’ll be joined in a Senate race by Mary Coughlan or former Senator Cecilia Keaveney.

Who gained most from FF slump in Donegal?

While at first glance it could appear as if Sinn Féin benefitted most from the dramatic slump in support for Fianna Fáil in Donegal, the figures would indicate that all the other main parties in the county improved on their showing in 2007 and with Thomas Pringle taking a seat in Donegal SW, perhaps it was the independents who gained most of all.

Both Pearse Doherty in Donegal SW and Padraig MacLochlainn in Donegal NE came extremely close to taking a seat in the 2007 General Election and certainly the Fianna Fáil slump helped them as they both topped the poll and took seats for Sinn Féin.

But there were improvements for Fine Gael too despite what many considered was the risky strategy of running two candidates in Donegal North East.

In fact John Ryan polled remarkably well for Fine Gael with 4,657 first preferences and for a while was being suggested by some as an outside bet to take a second seat for FG in Donegal North East.

As it turned out the improved performance in terms of votes still brought Fine Gael just two seats – one in each constituency returning the two sitting TDs Dinny McGinley and Joe McHugh - but they will be more than happy with their showing.

Labour meanwhile are likely to be disappointed, despite making significant gains on their showing last time out.

While Frank McBrearty saw his vote slip back from his recent by-election outing, his total of first preferences was still higher than the 2007 performance of Seamus Rodgers who polled just 1,111 first preferences.

Jimmy Harte meanwhile was in the battle for a seat until the death in Donegal North East, but just couldn’t make up the ground against Fianna Fail’s Charlie McConalogue. Harte’s showing was way better than the performance of Siobhan McLaughlin in 07 for Labour, and indeed on his own showing at that time when he ran as an independent.

It is believed that Harte might have fared better had there not been so many independents in the field with the 1,876 votes garnered in particular by Letterkenny-based candidate Dessie Shiels believed to have scuppered his chances.

In Donegal SW however it was all about the independents as Thomas Pringle provided one of the biggest upsets of the entire election by unseating Mary Coughlan and taking the third seat.

The county councillor had declared after the recent by-election that judging on his showing there he felt he could take Mary Coughlan’s seat and he was proved right.

His remarkable 5,845 first preferences was more than the combined vote of the four independents who had contested the election in 2007 in both constituencies in Donegal.

Between them Jimmy Harte (then an independent), Ian McGarvey, Arthur McGuinness (all in Donegal NE) and John Doherty in Donegal SW took only 2,553 votes.

In contrast – helped greatly by Thomas Pringle’s massive first preferences - the eight independent candidates in Donegal between them this time took a whopping 13,675 first preferences, a signal perhaps of a protest vote against the government, but no doubt Labour at least will think, ironically allowing Fianna Fáil to nip in and take a seat after all.

Dramatic slump in Fianna Fáil vote in Donegal

As the dust settles in the wake of yesterday’s historic events in Donegal, much of the focus will centre on the Fianna Fáil slump and the fact that Tánaiste Mary Coughlan became one of the most high-profile casualties of the election.

On examination it is clear that the decision to field two candidates in Donegal South West certainly hampered any hopes Fianna Fáil had of taking a seat there, while the decision not to add a second candidate in Donegal North East appears justified with the election of Charlie McConalogue.

But there can be no doubt about the extent of the slump in support. In 2007 the two candidates in Donegal South-West – Mary Coughlan and Pat the Cope Gallagher – took more votes between them (20,136) than the entire vote across Donegal this time around (16,358).

Elected with a surplus on the first count in 2007, Mary Coughlan had 10,530 first preferences then compared to the 4,956 she took this time around.

And her running mate Brian O’Domhnaill fared equally dismally taking 4,789 first preferences this time compared to the 9,606 that saw Pat the Cope Gallagher elected with ease on the second count in 2007.

In Donegal North East there was also a huge slump in Fianna Fáil support, but there the single candidate strategy paid off when Charlie McConalogue pipped Jimmy Harte for the last seat without reaching the quota.

However when it is considered that Fianna Fáil had two TDs elected in Donegal North East last time and effectively three the time before that (when Niall Blaney was IFF) the shift in the power base is evident even in Donegal North East.

Last time out Fianna Fáil ran three candidates in Donegal North East – Jimmy McDaid, Niall Blaney and Cecilia Keaveney – and between them polled 19,374 first preferences.

In contrast the single Fianna Fáil candidate Charlie McConalogue took just 6,613 first preference votes this time in Donegal North East and while it was enough to see him elected, there were already concerns being expressed yesterday about the consequences such a dramatic slump could have for the next local elections – particularly in the Letterkenny and Milford electoral areas.

In terms of the numbers Fianna Fáil took 39,510 first preferences in Donegal in 2007, compared to 16,358 first preferences in both constituencies in 2011.

Donegal SW Tally Figures Box by Box

Haven't yet managed to get my hands on the Excel file of the tally figures from Donegal Sw so here is a pic of the figures taken from today's Donegal on Sunday newspaper which has excellent coverage of the counts in both Donegal constituencies.

Eighth Count Donegal NE

Distribution of Joe McHugh's surplus

Harte (LAB) + 1,088    7,219
McConalogue  + 731  8,976

McConalogue elected without reaching the quota

Donegal North East 8th Count

Harte (LAB)              + 485   6,131
McConalogue (FF)  +734  8,245
McHugh (FG)         +3,318   12,049

Joe McHugh Elected

McHugh has a surplus of 2,569

Difference between Jimmy Harte and Charlie McConalogue is 2,114.
Next count will end the counts in Donegal NE