Fianna Fáil face battle in Donegal

Updates resume!

First of all sincere apologies to anyone regulalrly checking in for news of the election in Donegal for the lack of posts over the past two days. I spent most of Wednesday and Thursday in Dublin and despite trying to keep up to date with the happenings in Donegal, I didn’t manage to get online to update the blog – after discovering that even in the capital sometimes wi-fi access can be far from perfect. Anyway there has been loads of stuff going on..here’s a wee synopsis with a promise of more regular updates over the course of the final week.

Poll has Harte and McConalogue in battle

A poll in Thursday’s Tirconaill Tribune news paper has suggested that Fianna Fáil’s Charlie McConalogue may have to battle it out with Labour’s Jimmy Harte for the last seat in Donegal North East.

The poll has Sinn Féın’s Padraig MacLochlainn ahead with 28% of the vote, ahead of Fine Gael’s Joe McHugh in second place on 20% leaving councillor Harte and councillor McConalogue in a dead heat on 15%

Carried out by telephone last week, the poll surveyed 800 voters in Donegal North East and indicates that of the independent candidates in the field only health candidate Betty Holmes – on 7% is polling reasonably well.

The poll is the first to be carried out in Donegal for this election and no doubt will be carefully examined by the respective candidates and their supporters over the coming days.

While the figures may not prove exactly correct come polling day, the Tribune poll reinforces the local opinion that in reality only four candidates – MacLochlainn, McHugh, McConalogue and Harte will be in the race for the seats in Donegal North East.

Friday's Donegal News front pages suggests that Jimmy Harte and Thomas Pringle are both making a late charge for Fianna Fáil seats. If they were to win it could leave Donegal without a Fianna Fáil TD at all in the Dáil. Who would have thought that possible a few years ago when five of the six TDs were effectively FF (Niall Blaney was Independent FF).

Tánaiste’s seat in jeopardy?

Having had the spotlight to itself for the bye-election before Christmas, things seem relatively quiet in Donegal South West this time around compared to the drama unfolding in Donegal North East. But it doesn’t mean that there won’t be drama there and there has been growing speculation over the past week that Tánaiste, Mary Coughlan, could be in danger of losing her seat.

Some analysts have suggested that the Tánaiste’s Fianna Fáil running mate Brian O’Domhnaill is running her close for first preferences in Donegal South West while it has also been suggested that independent candidate Thomas Pringle could be well-placed to sneak in and make ground if a split Fianna Fáil vote endangers both candidates.

Labour’s Frank McBrearty meanwhile is likely to benefit from additional areas like St Johnston included from the Stranorlar Electoral area in Donegal South West but it is believed his strong showing in the Finn Valley may not be replicated further west in the county.

Most analysts predict that Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty will once again top the poll in Donegal South West with Fine Gael’s Dinny McGinley also set to take a seat. 

Inishowen key battleground in Donegal North East

Having long described itself as the forgotten part of the forgotten county, the Inishowen peninsula will step into the spotlight on February 26 when votes for the Donegal North East constituency are counted.

And that’s because the votes cast in the peninsula are set to have a huge bearing on which of the 11 candidates in Donegal NE will finally take the three seats.

Five of the eleven candidates are based in the Inishowen electoral area – Charlie McConalogue (FF), Padraig MacLochlainn (SF), John Ryan (FG), Ryan Stewart (Ind) and Betty Holmes (Ind) and with their boxes the first to be opened on count day, they will give the earliest indications of how things are going in the constituency.

With so many candidates in the field from the peninsula, it will be extremely interesting to watch the voting patterns and determine how they might affect the final outcome.

There can be no doubt that the people of Inishowen feel they should have a TD with none of the three outgoing TDs coming from the peninsula.

After all that’s why Fianna Fáil members in Inishowen had held an ‘unofficial’ convention to select Charlie McConalogue as their candidate. Even they could not have predicted the events that followed in relation to Niall Blaney’s withdrawal, but the upshot of it all has seen Cllr McConalogue as Fianna Fáil’s sole candidate.

But the Fine Gael members in the peninsula wanted their man in the field too. So they pressed to have John Ryan added to the ticket after Joe McHugh had initially been selected as the sole candidate.

Of the five Inishowen candidates it is widely-believed that Padraig MacLochlainn of Sinn Féin and Charlie McConalogue are the two most likely to be in the shake-up when it comes to filling the seats – but that’s not to say the other candidates won’t have a bearing.

John Ryan’s arrival in the field for instance could be hugely significant for Joe McHugh the only sitting TD in the constituency who is seeking re-election. McHugh swept to victory and topped the poll in 2007 – but that was as the sole Fine Gael candidate – and the votes garnered by Councillor Ryan this time will certainly shake things up for Fine Gael.

For many Sinn Féin’s Padraig MacLochlainn is favourite to win a seat and he is sure to poll very strongly in Inishowen. But he did so last time out and despite battling to the bitter end he was finally pipped at the post by Niall Blaney of Fianna Fáil for the last seat. Whether Dara Blaney’s late entry to the field will have any impact on Padraig MacLochlainn’s showing outside Inishowen remains to be seen.

Charlie McConalogue’s campaign got off the ground amidst uncertainty and disillusionment from within the Fianna Fáil ranks in Donegal North East – and that’s before he started knocking on doors with a public hugely angry with the outgoing government. Popular in Inishowen, people will watch with interest to see if he can secure enough first preferences there to help haul him over the line.

Ryan Stewart’s first foray into politics may well not be his last and even if he does not succeed in winning a Dáil seat don't be surprised to see his name again when the next local elections roll around.

His votes and those of fellow independent Betty Holmes will play their part in deciding where the three seats finally go – and a future blog post will focus on the importance of transfers in both constituencies.

But before the transfers even begin there can be no doubt that the battlefield of Inishowen will play a vital role in deciding who will fill the seats for Donegal North East – the question up there will be... can the peninsula get a TD – or perhaps even two this time!

How big an influence will the internet be?

For the first time ever in Ireland the influence of new social media outlets like Facebook and Twitter are being analysed in relation to a General Election campaign and while having a presence online will be no substitute for knocking on doors, it is interesting to see how – and if – Donegal candidates are paying attention to their online presence.

Thanks to the brilliant work on the site – candidate.ie – there are some statistics available already in relation to the Donegal candidates and their presence or otherwise on Twitter and Facebook  - but these are likely to change.

For instance in Donegal North East, independent candidate Betty Holmes is on both Facebook and Twitter, but her presence in the field has gone under the radar for the candidate.ie site as yet and, as such does not appear although I've no doubt it will soon.

Fianna Fail’s Charlie McConalogue and Fine Gael’s John Ryan are not listed either, but like Betty Holmes they too have a presence on Facebook.

Sinn Fein’s Pearse Doherty is among the most popular candidates in the country in terms of his Facebook friends numbers and is certainly way ahead of the rest of the Donegal candidates.

What it all means though is open to all kinds of debate. For instance Facebook friends is no indication of the number of votes a candidate might secure – after all the friends could be anywhere and not necessarily inside the boundaries of the constituency.

And what about Twitter? Certainly less popular in Ireland at present than Facebook, it is growing rapidly in popularity.

Not many of the local candidates are on Twitter for instance, although it was interesting to see a number of Tweets from Labour’s Jimmy Harte today on his campaign updates.

I’m hoping over the next few days to have a more in-depth look at the online presence of our various candidates and doing a more in-depth piece.

In the meantime have a look at this link for brilliant video post from the cutbacks2010 videos which would seem to indicate that not all prospective TDs think the internet is the way to go!

Harte to benefit as FF go for one?

Letterkenny has only one declared candidate for the forthcoming election following the decision by Fianna Fáil to run Charlie McConalogue as their sole candidate in the constituency.

Charlie McConalogue (FF)

Labour's Jimmy Harte is now Letterkenny's sole candidate and will be hoping for a positive bounce from the fact that local Fianna Fáil councillor Dessie Larkin has not been given the nod to run in Donegal North East.

Jimmy Harte (Labour)

Dessie Larkin (FF)

The former Fine Gael councillor left the party following their decision to run just one candidate in the last General Election and ran as an independent. He switched to the Labour Party last year and has been canvassing strongly in the Cathedral Town and in other areas of Donegal North-East since before Christmas.

McConalogue ahead in NE Poll

Inishowen based Fianna Fail candidate was leading the way in an online poll on the Inishowennews.com website this morning - but that was at the very early stages  (around 9.30 am) and as word spreads about the poll it will be interesting to see if he can sustain that early lead.

The poll was only posted on the site today and Linda McGrory from Inishowennews.com has confirmed this morning that it will stay on the news site until election day on February 25th.

With so many Inishowen candidates in the field in Donegal North East, there is sure to be a big interest in the election in the peninsula this time around and while they will not want to read too much into online poll results, it is likely the candidates will still try to keep tabs on the results.

Indeed, Labour Party Candidate, Jimmy Harte, has already through his Facebook page urged supporters to go online and vote for him.

Second Candidates The Big News

On the day when the 30^th Dáil was finally dissolved and the election day set for February 25^th there were plenty of goings on in both Donegal constituencies, but once again Donegal North-East was where the bulk of the action was taking place.

The day started of course with the fall-out of last weekend’s Fianna Fáil convention still hanging in the air, but it was widely expected that, by evening, Letterkenny-based councillor Dessie Larkin would be added to the ticket.

That, it would seem, is still the expectation, but it will be tomorrow now before it is confirmed and councillor Larkin was dismissing suggestions today that the party had approached a non-elected person to possibly run as a second candidate.

Second candidates seemed to the main theme of the day with Fine Gael also in the news regarding a second candidate in Donegal North-East.

Joe McHugh had already been selected as the party’s sole candidate in Donegal North East, but Inishowen party members were keen to have John Ryan added to the ticket and according to Donegaldaily.com tonight he has now been selected as a second Fine Gael candidate in Donegal North East.

If that is the case (if you can find confirmation of it on Fine Gael’s horrendous new website then great for you) then Inishowen will be one hell of a battlefield for the coming election with Padraig McLochlainn, Charlie McConalogue, Ryan Stewart and John Ryan all slugging it out for votes there.

Throw into the mix independent candidate Betty Holmes from Newtown on the fringe of the peninsula but in the Inishowen electoral area and the fate of the three North East seats could well lie in how the votes in Inishowen go.

In the South West meanwhile the Green Party have indicated that they will run a candidate again although there has been no indication yet as to who that person might be.

The storm clouds hanging over the Labour Party are probably still lingering with the Donegal on Sunday reporting at the weekend that some members had stormed out of their ‘clear the air’ meeting last week, but in public at least things seem to have calmed down.

Of course the gloves really don’t come off until the race gets under way in earnest – and that has happened now we have a date for the contest and the Dáil is dissolved.

The race is well and truly on – but expect a few twists and turns yet before the six Donegal winners get past the post.