A matter of geography

During the week a Fine Gael canvasser at my door – the first I had seen in this election campaign – suggested to me that it was difficult to get people enthusiastic about this election.

And part of the reason, he suggested, is the fact that Raphoe – where I live and where he was canvassing – is now part of Donegal South West and were it not for the fact that Labour’s Frank McBrearty is based here – we’d be even further on the fringes of the constituency and even less enthusiastic about an election.

In fairness, Raphoe was transferred to Donegal South-West before the last General Election in 2007, but that does not mean that the transfer sits easily with the people here.

And if that is the case in and around Raphoe then what of the people in St. Johnston who have been moved this time and who this Friday will cast their votes in Donegal South West.

Located in the most easterly part of Donegal, one local from St. Johnston told me recently that “the only place we’re south-west of is Derry!”

In all, four electoral divisons within the Stranorlar Electoral area have been transferred to Donegal South-West this time as part of the changes, increasing the population in the constituency by over 2,300.

And it is population – not geography – that has led to the boundary revisions.

If emigration continues as it has been recently from Donegal – further population reductions could lead to a single constituency in Donegal and a reduction in the number of TDs as well.

In total twenty-four constituency changes have been made across the country since the 2007 elections and could prove significant in some battles for seats next Friday. While national campaigns should be based on national issues – as the old saying goes all politics is local.

On that note it was interesting to see a poster from Labour’s Jimmy Harte in Letterkenny this week with the words “vote local” on the bottom.

With many suggesting he is in the running for a seat in Donegal North East, the Labour man is trying to make the most of the fact that he is the best known and most experienced candidate from Letterkenny in the field now – even if he no longer is the only one.

Of course he knows only too well the consequences of boundary changes, having stood as an independent candidate in 2007 when a large swathe of potential votes around his home town of Raphoe and nearby Lifford, were transferred to the South West.

As it turns out his Labour Party running mate, Frank McBrearty, is certain to sweep up the majority of the votes in that area and through much of the Finn Valley now. Incidentally, some of his posters declare that he is ‘standing up for the Finn Valley.’

But the importance of geography is not just confined to the South West as the jockeying to have candidates on the ballot from Inishowen and then from Letterkenny would indicate in Donegal North-East.

The reasoning of course is the fact that in huge constituencies like we have in Donegal geography is important. While the population may not be huge, all candidates are aware that a handful of votes can often make a big difference.

It’s a long way from Convoy to Carrick in Donegal South-West, just indeed as it is a long trek from Malin Head to Milford in the North-East – but should the geography matter that much?

Probably not in all fairness, and were constituency boundaries be drawn on that basis, we would end up with constituencies more akin to those in the local elections than our current Dáil constituencies and we’d have Inishowen, Stranorlar, Letterkenny, Glenties and Milford all with their own candidates and sure everybody would be happy.

This might not be needed though if radical reform of local authorities took place, giving local government more authority and more money to deal with local issues.

Perhaps then those running for the Dáil would be able to base their campaigns on national issues not local ones and candidates might not have to face questions on the same issues (potholes for instance) that local election candidates were answering two years ago.

And perhaps then people would not be as concerned about where a candidate is from and more focused on their policies, proposals and what they stand for.

But for now, expect geography to play its part and the tally figures when they come on Saturday to reinforce once again that old saying about all politics being local.

(For details on the boundary changes see - http://www.constituency-commission.ie/docs/con2007.pdf)

Fianna Fáil face battle in Donegal

Updates resume!

First of all sincere apologies to anyone regulalrly checking in for news of the election in Donegal for the lack of posts over the past two days. I spent most of Wednesday and Thursday in Dublin and despite trying to keep up to date with the happenings in Donegal, I didn’t manage to get online to update the blog – after discovering that even in the capital sometimes wi-fi access can be far from perfect. Anyway there has been loads of stuff going on..here’s a wee synopsis with a promise of more regular updates over the course of the final week.

Poll has Harte and McConalogue in battle

A poll in Thursday’s Tirconaill Tribune news paper has suggested that Fianna Fáil’s Charlie McConalogue may have to battle it out with Labour’s Jimmy Harte for the last seat in Donegal North East.

The poll has Sinn Féın’s Padraig MacLochlainn ahead with 28% of the vote, ahead of Fine Gael’s Joe McHugh in second place on 20% leaving councillor Harte and councillor McConalogue in a dead heat on 15%

Carried out by telephone last week, the poll surveyed 800 voters in Donegal North East and indicates that of the independent candidates in the field only health candidate Betty Holmes – on 7% is polling reasonably well.

The poll is the first to be carried out in Donegal for this election and no doubt will be carefully examined by the respective candidates and their supporters over the coming days.

While the figures may not prove exactly correct come polling day, the Tribune poll reinforces the local opinion that in reality only four candidates – MacLochlainn, McHugh, McConalogue and Harte will be in the race for the seats in Donegal North East.

Friday's Donegal News front pages suggests that Jimmy Harte and Thomas Pringle are both making a late charge for Fianna Fáil seats. If they were to win it could leave Donegal without a Fianna Fáil TD at all in the Dáil. Who would have thought that possible a few years ago when five of the six TDs were effectively FF (Niall Blaney was Independent FF).

Tánaiste’s seat in jeopardy?

Having had the spotlight to itself for the bye-election before Christmas, things seem relatively quiet in Donegal South West this time around compared to the drama unfolding in Donegal North East. But it doesn’t mean that there won’t be drama there and there has been growing speculation over the past week that Tánaiste, Mary Coughlan, could be in danger of losing her seat.

Some analysts have suggested that the Tánaiste’s Fianna Fáil running mate Brian O’Domhnaill is running her close for first preferences in Donegal South West while it has also been suggested that independent candidate Thomas Pringle could be well-placed to sneak in and make ground if a split Fianna Fáil vote endangers both candidates.

Labour’s Frank McBrearty meanwhile is likely to benefit from additional areas like St Johnston included from the Stranorlar Electoral area in Donegal South West but it is believed his strong showing in the Finn Valley may not be replicated further west in the county.

Most analysts predict that Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty will once again top the poll in Donegal South West with Fine Gael’s Dinny McGinley also set to take a seat. 

Confirmed - Larkin won't run as an independent

Letterkenny-based politician Dessie Larkin has tonight confirmed that he will not contest the election ending rumours that he would stand as an independent candidate.

There had been speculation that councillor Larkin would stand as an independent in Donegal North East after he failed to be added to the Fianna Fáil ticket following Niall Blaney's shock decision not to contest the election.

However, speaking on Highland Radio tonight, councillor Larkin says there is no doubt that his party requires a review and "a lift from the grass roots up," but said he hopes to be able to do that from within the party.

Fianna Fáil will be hoping that their members get fully behind the campaign of their single candidate Charlie McConalogue now, but many have tipped Labour's Jimmy Harte to gain significantly from the fact that councillor Larkin is not running.

The entry into the field of independent candidate Dessie Shiels - a Letterkenny-based solicitor - may however mean that he could now take some of the vote that may well have gone to councillor Larkin.

Candidates have until 12 noon tomorrow (Thursday) to hand in their nomination papers.

How big an influence will the internet be?

For the first time ever in Ireland the influence of new social media outlets like Facebook and Twitter are being analysed in relation to a General Election campaign and while having a presence online will be no substitute for knocking on doors, it is interesting to see how – and if – Donegal candidates are paying attention to their online presence.

Thanks to the brilliant work on the site – candidate.ie – there are some statistics available already in relation to the Donegal candidates and their presence or otherwise on Twitter and Facebook  - but these are likely to change.

For instance in Donegal North East, independent candidate Betty Holmes is on both Facebook and Twitter, but her presence in the field has gone under the radar for the candidate.ie site as yet and, as such does not appear although I've no doubt it will soon.

Fianna Fail’s Charlie McConalogue and Fine Gael’s John Ryan are not listed either, but like Betty Holmes they too have a presence on Facebook.

Sinn Fein’s Pearse Doherty is among the most popular candidates in the country in terms of his Facebook friends numbers and is certainly way ahead of the rest of the Donegal candidates.

What it all means though is open to all kinds of debate. For instance Facebook friends is no indication of the number of votes a candidate might secure – after all the friends could be anywhere and not necessarily inside the boundaries of the constituency.

And what about Twitter? Certainly less popular in Ireland at present than Facebook, it is growing rapidly in popularity.

Not many of the local candidates are on Twitter for instance, although it was interesting to see a number of Tweets from Labour’s Jimmy Harte today on his campaign updates.

I’m hoping over the next few days to have a more in-depth look at the online presence of our various candidates and doing a more in-depth piece.

In the meantime have a look at this link for brilliant video post from the cutbacks2010 videos which would seem to indicate that not all prospective TDs think the internet is the way to go!

Harte to benefit as FF go for one?

Letterkenny has only one declared candidate for the forthcoming election following the decision by Fianna Fáil to run Charlie McConalogue as their sole candidate in the constituency.

Charlie McConalogue (FF)

Labour's Jimmy Harte is now Letterkenny's sole candidate and will be hoping for a positive bounce from the fact that local Fianna Fáil councillor Dessie Larkin has not been given the nod to run in Donegal North East.

Jimmy Harte (Labour)

Dessie Larkin (FF)

The former Fine Gael councillor left the party following their decision to run just one candidate in the last General Election and ran as an independent. He switched to the Labour Party last year and has been canvassing strongly in the Cathedral Town and in other areas of Donegal North-East since before Christmas.

McConalogue ahead in NE Poll

Inishowen based Fianna Fail candidate was leading the way in an online poll on the Inishowennews.com website this morning - but that was at the very early stages  (around 9.30 am) and as word spreads about the poll it will be interesting to see if he can sustain that early lead.

The poll was only posted on the site today and Linda McGrory from Inishowennews.com has confirmed this morning that it will stay on the news site until election day on February 25th.

With so many Inishowen candidates in the field in Donegal North East, there is sure to be a big interest in the election in the peninsula this time around and while they will not want to read too much into online poll results, it is likely the candidates will still try to keep tabs on the results.

Indeed, Labour Party Candidate, Jimmy Harte, has already through his Facebook page urged supporters to go online and vote for him.