The publication today of preliminary reports from the 2011 census provide some interesting statistics for county Donegal
The figure show for instance that the county’s population in 2011 stands at 160,927 – showing an increase of 13,663 or 9.3% on the 2006 census figure of 147,264.
Of that figure 80,411 are male, compared to 80,516 females.
Since 2006 the key changes in population in Donegal show 6,441 more males, 7,222 more females in the county as a whole.
One of the big questions after the numbers are crunched will focus on whether or not the county will continue to have six TDs when electoral reform measures are put in place.
One of the country’s top analysts Adrian Kavanagh, a lecturer in the Geography Department at NUI Maynooth has already tweeted that Donegal NE and SW are both too small now to remain as 3-seaters, but too large to become separate 5-seater, could be tricky
No doubt the number crunchers will be hard at work over the next few days on what this means for the country, and indeed perhaps for individual counties.
In the meantime I have included some of the key figures pertaining to Co Donegal in the tables below and all the figures can be found on www.cso.ie
In many cases the best chance an independent election candidate has of ever taking a seat in a general election is when they have a cause to crusade for that people felt passionately about - something the people in Donegal South West saw not too long ago when Tom Gildea upset the applecart to take what had been a Fianna Fáil seat.
Of course there have been independents elected who were not seen as single issue candidates, but more often than not these have been seasoned politicians, and quite often former members of one political party or another.
This election in Donegal sees no less than five independent candidates in the field in Donegal North East, while three have entered the race in the South West.
But what of their chances?
Well, if the polls and the tipsters are to go by, only one of the eight – Thomas Pringle in Donegal South West – stands any outside hope of taking a seat.
Interestingly enough, as a long serving county councillor he is also only one of two of the eight independent candidates with any track record in politics – the other being councillor Ian McGarvey in Donegal North East, possibly the election’s oldest candidate at 81.
A recent poll in the Tir Concaill Tribune newspaper suggested that in Donegal North East however only health candidate Betty Holmes would poll any significant number of votes.
And in health, she certainly has a cause to crusade with in Donegal. However, despite her association with Donegal Action for Cancer Care, her campaign is a personal one and therefore is not likely to gather the kind of momentum she’d need to cause an upset.
Had she thrown her hat into the ring in advance of the last general election however, things might well have been different. At that time the issue of cancer care in particular seemed to be much higher on the agenda and a huge protest march in Letterkenny when upwards of 10,000 people took to the streets was still fresh in the memory.
On that point it was interesting to hear the comments made at the weekend by local haulier John McLaughlin, when he suggested he might have won a seat in this election had he decided to stand.
His comments came after he’d witnessed huge support for a protest in Letterkenny on Saturday against the rising cost of fuel – something he says has been driving people out of business across the country.
Mr. McLaughlin takes his protest to Dublin this week and is gathering momentum and support across the North West for the day of protest that will cause traffic chaos in the capital.
His message, he said yesterday, is to let the government know – the outgoing one and the incoming one – that ordinary people cannot afford to pay any more.
Judging by the level of support at his rally in Letterkenny at the weekend, it’s a message that he has managed to send out loud and clear which is why those in the race for seats in Donegal are probably glad that he left it too late to throw his hat in the ring this time.
Here's Mr McLaughlin's interview after the rally on Saturday, courtesy of Wallace Media.
First of all sincere apologies to anyone regulalrly checking in for news of the election in Donegal for the lack of posts over the past two days. I spent most of Wednesday and Thursday in Dublin and despite trying to keep up to date with the happenings in Donegal, I didn’t manage to get online to update the blog – after discovering that even in the capital sometimes wi-fi access can be far from perfect. Anyway there has been loads of stuff going on..here’s a wee synopsis with a promise of more regular updates over the course of the final week.
Poll has Harte and McConalogue in battle
A poll in Thursday’s Tirconaill Tribune news paper has suggested that Fianna Fáil’s Charlie McConalogue may have to battle it out with Labour’s Jimmy Harte for the last seat in Donegal North East.
The poll has Sinn Féın’s Padraig MacLochlainn ahead with 28% of the vote, ahead of Fine Gael’s Joe McHugh in second place on 20% leaving councillor Harte and councillor McConalogue in a dead heat on 15%
Carried out by telephone last week, the poll surveyed 800 voters in Donegal North East and indicates that of the independent candidates in the field only health candidate Betty Holmes – on 7% is polling reasonably well.
The poll is the first to be carried out in Donegal for this election and no doubt will be carefully examined by the respective candidates and their supporters over the coming days.
While the figures may not prove exactly correct come polling day, the Tribune poll reinforces the local opinion that in reality only four candidates – MacLochlainn, McHugh, McConalogue and Harte will be in the race for the seats in Donegal North East.
Friday's Donegal News front pages suggests that Jimmy Harte and Thomas Pringle are both making a late charge for Fianna Fáil seats. If they were to win it could leave Donegal without a Fianna Fáil TD at all in the Dáil. Who would have thought that possible a few years ago when five of the six TDs were effectively FF (Niall Blaney was Independent FF).
Tánaiste’s seat in jeopardy?
Having had the spotlight to itself for the bye-election before Christmas, things seem relatively quiet in Donegal South West this time around compared to the drama unfolding in Donegal North East. But it doesn’t mean that there won’t be drama there and there has been growing speculation over the past week that Tánaiste, Mary Coughlan, could be in danger of losing her seat.
Some analysts have suggested that the Tánaiste’s Fianna Fáil running mate Brian O’Domhnaill is running her close for first preferences in Donegal South West while it has also been suggested that independent candidate Thomas Pringle could be well-placed to sneak in and make ground if a split Fianna Fáil vote endangers both candidates.
Labour’s Frank McBrearty meanwhile is likely to benefit from additional areas like St Johnston included from the Stranorlar Electoral area in Donegal South West but it is believed his strong showing in the Finn Valley may not be replicated further west in the county.
Most analysts predict that Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty will once again top the poll in Donegal South West with Fine Gael’s Dinny McGinley also set to take a seat.
For the first time ever in Ireland the influence of new social media outlets like Facebook and Twitter are being analysed in relation to a General Election campaign and while having a presence online will be no substitute for knocking on doors, it is interesting to see how – and if – Donegal candidates are paying attention to their online presence.
Thanks to the brilliant work on the site – candidate.ie – there are some statistics available already in relation to the Donegal candidates and their presence or otherwise on Twitter and Facebook- but these are likely to change.
For instance in Donegal North East, independent candidate Betty Holmes is on both Facebook and Twitter, but her presence in the field has gone under the radar for the candidate.ie site as yet and, as such does not appear although I've no doubt it will soon.
Fianna Fail’s Charlie McConalogue and Fine Gael’s John Ryan are not listed either, but like Betty Holmes they too have a presence on Facebook.
Sinn Fein’s Pearse Doherty is among the most popular candidates in the country in terms of his Facebook friends numbers and is certainly way ahead of the rest of the Donegal candidates.
What it all means though is open to all kinds of debate. For instance Facebook friends is no indication of the number of votes a candidate might secure – after all the friends could be anywhere and not necessarily inside the boundaries of the constituency.
And what about Twitter? Certainly less popular in Ireland at present than Facebook, it is growing rapidly in popularity.
Not many of the local candidates are on Twitter for instance, although it was interesting to see a number of Tweets from Labour’s Jimmy Harte today on his campaign updates.
I’m hoping over the next few days to have a more in-depth look at the online presence of our various candidates and doing a more in-depth piece.
In the meantime have a look at this link for brilliant video post from the cutbacks2010 videos which would seem to indicate that not all prospective TDs think the internet is the way to go!
On the day when the 30th Dáil was finally dissolved and the election day set for February 25th there were plenty of goings on in both Donegal constituencies, but once again Donegal North-East was where the bulk of the action was taking place.
The day started of course with the fall-out of last weekend’s Fianna Fáil convention still hanging in the air, but it was widely expected that, by evening, Letterkenny-based councillor Dessie Larkin would be added to the ticket.
That, it would seem, is still the expectation, but it will be tomorrow now before it is confirmed and councillor Larkin was dismissing suggestions today that the party had approached a non-elected person to possibly run as a second candidate.
Second candidates seemed to the main theme of the day with Fine Gael also in the news regarding a second candidate in Donegal North-East.
Joe McHugh had already been selected as the party’s sole candidate in Donegal North East, but Inishowen party members were keen to have John Ryan added to the ticket and according to Donegaldaily.com tonight he has now been selected as a second Fine Gael candidate in Donegal North East.
If that is the case (if you can find confirmation of it on Fine Gael’s horrendous new website then great for you) then Inishowen will be one hell of a battlefield for the coming election with Padraig McLochlainn, Charlie McConalogue, Ryan Stewart and John Ryan all slugging it out for votes there.
Throw into the mix independent candidate Betty Holmes from Newtown on the fringe of the peninsula but in the Inishowen electoral area and the fate of the three North East seats could well lie in how the votes in Inishowen go.
In the South West meanwhile the Green Party have indicated that they will run a candidate again although there has been no indication yet as to who that person might be.
The storm clouds hanging over the Labour Party are probably still lingering with the Donegal on Sunday reporting at the weekend that some members had stormed out of their ‘clear the air’ meeting last week, but in public at least things seem to have calmed down.
Of course the gloves really don’t come off until the race gets under way in earnest – and that has happened now we have a date for the contest and the Dáil is dissolved.
The race is well and truly on – but expect a few twists and turns yet before the six Donegal winners get past the post.
